Sales forecast should be a prediction based on past performance on sales and an analysis of what to expect in the market. This is founded on various factors and as the marketing manager at the Crunchy Cookie Company; I would look at the market objectively. I would keep track of the past to have a grasp on the present times and accurately analyze the information to help predict future trends. As the manager, it would be very important to keep records of actual demand of goods and the underlying factors at a particular time and season.
For instance, the demand of goods could be high based on the factors of time; there would be a lot of sales at month end than it would be half way the month. Based on the above analysis, I would not understate sales projections. This is because jeopardizing volume of sales may negatively affect cash flow for Crunchy Cookie Company. It is always prudent to set the sales projections based on the factors affecting sales output in previous business operations. This way, the company produces what it can sale rather than struggling to sell what it has produced.
Measures to Take
Rather than approximating one huge sales figure in each quarter, a more realistic approach of a company like Crunchy Cookie Company would be a weekly schedule of the expenses and income from where to base the quarterly sales forecasts. Keeping books will help in providing information to base decisions on (Ross, Westerfield, & Jordan, 2007). Three projections of cash flow can be prepared where the sales percentages can be varied or other figures to reach three diverse scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic. A pessimistic perception should be the worst scenario. Plans should be made to get enough resources and endurance to sail through the scenario. This helps in providing ready alternatives for the Company and thus preventing manipulation of sales forecasts.